My friend Adam sent me this interesting note today:
I remember my dad talking about how the windshield wipers in his first car were driven by vacuum lines. The speed of the wipers varied with the load on the engine — the wipers would come to complete stop if you were climbing a steep enough hill. Apparently this is how many items, like automatic antennas, were powered in cars through the 50’s. Eventually alternators were introduced and the electric systems in cars became powerful and reliable enough that electric motors replaced vacuum as the primary power for accessories.
Looking inside a Toyota Prius, one might notice a similar change is taking place now that the electrical system has undergone another quantum leap.
Where a modern car typically has at least a half-dozen belt-powered systems, like the air conditioning and power steering, the Prius instead has electric motors which allow these systems to continue running when the engine is shut off (as happens automatically whenever the vehicle comes to a stop).
A side effect of this, which will go unnoticed by most of us, is that belts and accessories like automatic belt tensioners, which currently represent a multi-million dollar industry, may well go the way of the vacuum line. The savvy suppliers are already wise to this and are trying to diversify their business into areas which are hybrid-safe, but one can be fairly certain that as with all shifts, there will be winners and losers.
I like this because it is an example in miniature of the type of trend that futurists, investors, and entrepreneurs, all try to identify and exploit. Though when VCs talk about “getting their hands dirty”, I don’t think they usually mean it quite as literally as in this example!